陕西黄土台塬区农用地作物生产潜力分析及预测

基于RS和GIS支持,利用潜力递减法分析了陕西黄土高原台塬区农用地作物生产潜力空间变化特征,采用气候理论潜力为目标进行作物生态潜力预测。结果表明:陕西黄土高原台塬区农用地作物生产潜力差异较大,其中,光合生产潜力由东北向西南递减,光温生产潜力由东南向西北递减,气候生产潜力表现为西南部高于东北部,土壤生产潜力则南部高于北部;1985—2010年,研究区内作物生产潜力总量均有不同程度的降低,光合生产潜力、光温生产潜力、气候生产潜力及土壤生产潜力损失量分别为16 670.19、8 579.06、3 185.58、1 147.98 t,各占其对应级别潜力总量的2.37%、2.33%、2.33%、1.92%;建设用地的扩张对研究时段内区域作物生产潜力有明显的负面影响,因建设用地扩张造成的生产潜力损失约占农用地生态潜力损失量的50%;黄土台塬区的农用地的气候理论水平增产潜力较大。

Crop productive potentiality evaluation and prediction of farming land in Shaanxi loess tableland

Based on RS and GIS,and the method of gradual diminishing potentiality,this paper calcu-lates the crop productivity potentiality of the farming land in Shaanxi Loess tableland and tries to predict its change at climate productive potential level. The results are as follows：Crop productivity potentiality in this regions has a great spatial difference. Specifically,the photosynthesis productive potentiality is higher in the northeast than the southwest,the light and temperature potentiality productivity decreases from the southeast to the northwest,climate productive potentiality in southwest is higher than in the northeast,and soil productive potentiality in the southern of the Shaanxi platform region is higher than that in the north. The amount of crop productivity potential of agricultural land has reduced at different degree from 1985 to 2010. The Photosynthe-sis productive potentiality has reduced by 16 670.19 t,the light and temperature potential productivity has re-duced by 8 579. 06 t,climatic potential productivity by 3 185. 58 t,and soil potential productivity by 1 147.98 t. The reduced amount accounts for 2.37%,2.33%,2.33% and 1.92% respectively. The crop productivity potentiality has obvious reduction by the expansion of land use for constructions,which accounts for about 50% of the total. Climate theoretical level production potentialtiy in the research area is still large.