| 基于饱和增长趋势模型的福建人口预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 张胆,徐学荣,郑江桦.基于饱和增长趋势模型的福建人口预测[J].龙岩学院学报,2009,27(3):82-85. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 张胆 徐学荣 郑江桦 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 福建农林大学经济与管理学院,福建福州,350002 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 以1978～2007年福建省的人口统计数据为依据,采用饱和增长趋势模型中的修正指数模型、龚柏兹模型、逻辑斯蒂模型对福建省未来人口总量进行预测.根据预测结果进一步用三种模型进行组合得到组合预测模型,预测结果为2010年、2015年、2020年福建省人口总量分别达到:3654.93万人、3752.83万人、3832.61万人.
|
| 关 键 词： | 人口预测 福建省 修正指数模型 龚柏兹模型 逻辑斯蒂模型 |
Population Projection in Fujian Based on Saturated Growth Model |
| |
| ZHANG Dan,XU Xue-rong,ZHENG Jiang-wei.Population Projection in Fujian Based on Saturated Growth Model[J].Journal of Longyan Univercity,2009,27(3):82-85. |
| |
| Authors: | ZHANG Dan XU Xue-rong ZHENG Jiang-wei |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the population statistics in Fujian Province form1978 to 2007,this paper first projects the total population of Fujian Province in the near future years using three saturated growth models which are the improved exponential model,Compertz model and Logistic model.Then the three models are combined to form a combined projecting model according to the projected results.The total population in 2010,2015 and 2020 will be 36.5493 million,37.5283 million and 38.3261 million respectively. |
| |
| Keywords: | population projection Fujian Province improved exponential model compertz model logistic model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
