理性群体决策的概率集结研究

探讨如何集结多个专家的不确定性信息，以获得群体一致判断．首先分析群体理性存在的可能性；在此基础上，给出了几种集结个体概率的模型及算式，讨论了这些模型的特点，实际应用的可能性；最后，评述了Ｄａｌｋｅｙ个体概率集结不可能性定理中潜在的问题。得出几个研究的结论，并且提出了需要进一步研究的问题。

Probability Aggregation in Rational Group Decision Making

This paper considers the problem of aggregating multiple experts' probility estimates of an event to obtain a group consensus estimate.First,we prove the possibility of group rationality (Arrow rationality and Bayesian rationality), discuss several important models and formulas on aggregating individual probability based on the group Bayesian rationality, the properties of these models used in the practical information pooling are also identified.In this paper, a criticism about a potential problem in Dalkey(1972) impossibility result is provided, and some brief conclusion are given.Finally, we show some topics for furture research in group Bayesian rationality and probability aggregation.