基于投资人视角的BT项目工期与成本偏差预警模型研究

BT项目建设期间的进度和成本控制好坏直接影响投资人的投资效益.在研究现有相关文献的基础上,提出通过计算进度和成本的绝对偏差、相对偏差以及绩效指数,来正确评价项目的真实偏差状态,实行进度和成本的联合控制.根据风险预警机制和项目特点,提出采用进度和成本的相对偏差之和作为BT项目的风险预警指标,并设计出相应的预警区间,据此可进行风险预警.最后用案例证明该模型是可行和有效的.

Research on Early Warning Mode of BT Project Duration and Cost Deviation

During BT project construction, the control effect of schedule and cost will have a direct impact on the investor's investment efficiency. In the beginning of this paper, on the basis of the study of existing literature, by the way of calculating the absolute deviation, relative deviation and the performance index of the schedule and cost, the true deviation status of the project could be evaluated accurately and the schedule and cost will be in combination control. Following by this, according to the risk early warning mechanisms and characteristics of the project, the relative deviation sum of schedule and cost is proposed to be used as risk early warning index, and the corresponding early warning district is designed, then the risk early warning could be got. In the last section, a case is used to demonstrate effectiveness and feasibility of the method.