近50a皖北地区气温变化特征分析

选取皖北地区5个代表气象站1957～2007年的逐月气温数据,采用线性倾向估计和累积距平等方法,研究了皖北地区气温变化的趋势和空间差异.结果表明:①近50a皖北地区的年平均气温升高约1.3℃,增温率0.25℃/10a;20世纪90年代开始气温快速升高,增暖明显.②四季气温的变化有明显差异,除夏季外,春、秋、冬3季气温均呈上升趋势,气温分别升高了1.7,1.4,1.8℃;增温率分别为0.34,0.27,0.36℃/10a;增温幅度从大到小依次为冬季、春季和秋季.③皖北地区东部的宿州和东南部的蚌埠增暖明显,增温幅度较大;皖北地区西北部的砀山、西部的亳州和西南部的阜阳增温幅度较小.气温异常偏高年份多出现在90年代以后,1991～2007年的17a中,气温异常偏高及以上等级出现10a,占59%.

Characteristics of temperature change in north of Anhui Province in the last 50 years

In order to analyze the changing trend and spatial differences of temperatures in the north of Anhui Province,monthly data on temperatures from 1957 to 2007 recorded by five weather stations were collected and investigated with linear trend estimation and accumulated variance analysis methods.Results show that annual mean temperature has increased about 1.3 ℃,0.25 ℃ per ten years,especially obviously after the 1990s;seasonal increasing trends are significant except summer,with increments of 1.7,1.4,and 1.8 ℃ or about 0.34,0.27,and 0.36 ℃ per ten years,in spring,fall,and winter,respectively;Suzhou and Bengbu have been affected more than Dangshan,Bozhou,and Fuyang;extremely high temperatures commonly occurred after the 1990s,mostly in 10 years of the 17 years from 1991 to 2007.