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| 青藏铁路格拉段货运量预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 沈鹏,杨浩,魏玉光. 青藏铁路格拉段货运量预测[J]. 北京交通大学学报(自然科学版), 2005, 29(3): 92-95,110 |
| 作者姓名： | 沈鹏 杨浩 魏玉光 |
| 作者单位： | 北京交通大学,交通运输学院,北京,100044;北京交通大学,交通运输学院,北京,100044;北京交通大学,交通运输学院,北京,100044 |
| 摘 要： | 分析了青藏铁路格拉段,进出藏运量差异大,存在地区间客货运输的需求差异和季节波动的特殊性.针对格拉段所在经济区域存在大量受运能制约而无法实现的潜在运输需求的特点,在社会货运总量预测中提出了货运诱发系数的概念,用以度量新线建设对社会货运量的带动作用. |
| 关 键 词： | 铁道运输 运量预测 青藏铁路 货运诱发系数 货运量时间分布 |
| 文章编号： | 1673-0291(2005)03-0092-04 |
Freight Volume of Forecasting in Geermu-Lhasa Section of Qinghai-Tibet Railway |
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| SHEN Peng,YANG Hao,WEI Yu-guang. Freight Volume of Forecasting in Geermu-Lhasa Section of Qinghai-Tibet Railway[J]. JOURNAL OF BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIVERSITY, 2005, 29(3): 92-95,110 | |
| Authors: | SHEN Peng YANG Hao WEI Yu-guang |
| Abstract: | The paper fully analyzes the particularity of Geermu_Lhasa section of Qinghai_Tibet railway: the freight volume which comes out of Tibet is different from that of into Tibet, demand difference between economy areas and temporal wave of passenger and freight traffic volume exist. The economy belt along Geermu_Lhasa railway has a great deal of potential transport demand that can't be served because of deficient transport capacity. In view of the particularity, the paper put forward the concept of induced_freight_volume coefficient in social freight volume prediction to measure the effect on social freight volume brought by new railway. |
| Keywords: | railway transport freight volume forecasting Qinghai_Tibet railway freight volume induced coefficient temporal distribution of freight volume |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |