基于模糊集合论的故障树分析方法及其应用

传统的故障树分析方法是基于概率论的 ,其失效概率通常要根据大量的第一手数据进行估计 ,然而 ,实际上不可能收集到足够多的第一手数据。首先分析了传统故障树分析的不足 ,提出了一种基于梯形模糊数算术运算的故障树分析方法 ,阐述了将各种模糊数转换成梯形模糊数的途径 ,最后 ,给出了该方法的一个应用实例。结果说明 ,所提出的故障树分析方法具有很好的灵活性和适应性。

A Fault Tree Analysis Method Based on Fuzzy Set Theory and Its Application

The conventional fault tree analysis is based on probability theory. Usually, the failure probabilities should be estimated from a large amount of data. In practice, however, it is not likely to collect enough immediate data. In this paper, the disadvantages of conventional fault tree analysis method are analyzed firstly, a fuzzy fault tree analysis method based on trapezoidal fuzzy number arithmetic operations is proposed, and the methods to transform various kinds of fuzzy number into trapezoidal ones are discussed. Finally, a fault tree analysis of the abnormal event in a real system is illustrated. The result shows that the method is flexible and adaptive.