负面舆情传播规律及其对策研究

借鉴流行病学仓室建模的思想,根据人们对负面舆情了解情况和态度,将人们划为4类：易感类、潜伏类、感染类、移出类.通过对负面舆情的传播的分析,确定了4者之间的转移关系,建立微分方程模型,同时提出了易感类转移为感染类的概率应该随着时间由大变小,而感染类转化为移出类的概率应该随着时间由小变大,确定其概率函数,并由此得出了负面舆情的控制策略.

Study on negative opinion propagation law and its countermeasures

From the epidemiological compartment modeling and people＇ s attitude to the negative public opinion,the people have been divided into four classes;susceptible,latent,recover and infection.By the analyzing of the negative public opinion propagation,the relationship between the four becomes clear and the differential equation model is built,at the same time,an opinion is put forward,the probability of the susceptibles to infections should relieve with the time,but the probability of the infections to recovers should increase with the time,their probability functions are determined,and the control strategy of the negative public opinion is proposed.