华北山前平原典型井灌区地下水水位变化影响因素分析

为定量评估华北山前平原多因子对地下水水位动态变化的影响,选取华北山前平原典型井灌区石家庄市栾城区为研究区,从水量平衡角度分析了影响该地区地下水水位动态变化的主要影响因子;利用主成分回归分析法排除主要影响因子间的相互作用,定量分析了各综合因子对地下水水位回升的贡献率;构建了栾城地下水水位主成分-时间序列模型预测多因子影响下的华北山前平原地下水水位变化。结果表明:1994—2015年栾城地下水水位主要受本地气候因子、本地人类活动和上游人类活动三方面影响因子的共同作用,各因子对当地地下水水位回升的贡献率分别为11.7%、-50.9%和-37.4%,对这三方面影响因子起主导作用的影响因素分别为栾城降水量、栾城小麦和玉米的种植面积以及上游石家庄市区人口;1994—2015年栾城自然气候变化有利于该地区地下水资源的恢复,但人类活动对地下水资源的影响仍占主导作用。

Analysis on influencing factors of groundwater level change in typical well irrigation area in piedmont plain of North China

To quantitatively assess the influence of multiple factors on the dynamic change of ground water in the piedmont plain of the North China, this paper selected a typical well irrigation area in Luancheng of Shijiazhuang City as the study area and analyzed the main influencing factors of the dynamic changes of groundwater level from the perspective of water balance. The principal component regression analysis method was used to exclude the interaction between main influencing factors and the contribution rate of each comprehensive factor to the groundwater level rise was analyzed quantitatively. The principal component-time series model was established to predict groundwater level changes in the piedmont plain of the North China under the influence of multiple factors. The results showed that the groundwater was mainly affected by local climatic factors, local human activities and human activities in the upper reaches in Luancheng from 1994 to 2015. The contribution rate of each influence factor on the recovery of groundwater level was 11. 7%, -50. 9% and -37. 4% respectively. The main factors that played a leading role in these three aspects were the precipitation in Luancheng, sowing area of wheat and corn in Luancheng, and the population of Shijiazhuang City in the upper reaches of Luancheng. In the past 20 years, the climate change was conducive to the recovery of groundwater resources in Luancheng, but human activities played a leading role in the problem of groundwater resources.