| 非典型肺炎的数学模型及其数值分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 陈少云,杨志春.非典型肺炎的数学模型及其数值分析[J].成都大学学报(自然科学版),2006,25(3):161-165. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 陈少云 杨志春 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 四川建筑职业技术学院,四川,德阳,618000;成都纺织高等专科学校基础部,四川,成都,610063 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 利用微分方程,建立了2003年我国SARS病人数量随时间变化的模型.利用回归分析,得到了该地区病人数量变化模型的回归方程,并用方差分析进行统计检验.结果表明:在以隔离作为控制SARS病人数量的主要手段的情况下,用logistic方程来拟合其数量变化过程,具有很高的拟合度,与实际数据对比,平均误差仅为0.6199%.
|
| 关 键 词： | Logistic曲线 SARS 非线性回归 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-5422（2006）03-0161-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-06-25 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-06-25 |
Mathematical Model and Numerical Analysis of SARS |
| |
| CHEN Shaoyun,YANG Zhichun.Mathematical Model and Numerical Analysis of SARS[J].Journal of Chengdu University (Natural Science),2006,25(3):161-165. |
| |
| Authors: | CHEN Shaoyun YANG Zhichun |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Sichuan College of Architectural Technology, Deyang 6180000, China; 2. Basic Department of Chengdu Textile College, Chengdu 610063, China |
| |
| Abstract: | In this paper,we establish the model of quantity of SARS patients changing with time goes on of China in 2003 by using differential equation.We obtain the regression equation of the changing model of patient quantity by using regression analysis and make variance analysis to carry out statistical inspection.The result indicates that under the circumstance of controlling the quantity of SARS patients by means of isolation,we can get very high goodness of fit by using logistic equation to fit the course of quantity change.Compared with the actual data,the fit data has an average error of 0.6199%. |
| |
| Keywords: | logistic curve SARS nonlinear regression |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
