电力行业煤炭需求系统动力学模型

分析了电力行业煤炭需求系统复杂结构特征及动态反馈关系,建立了电力行业煤炭需求系统动力学模型并进行了仿真模拟, 研究表明:电力行业仍将是拉动煤炭需求增长的主要因素,电力煤炭需求影响因素复杂,经济发展速度、节能技术进步以及政策调节等发挥了重要的影响作用.从政策层面上,应通过调整产业结构、降低投资率、优化投资结构抑制电煤过度需求；统一规划煤炭和电力的发展;促进节能管理, 加大技术进步对节能降耗的贡献等.

SD model of the coal demand in the electricity industry

This paper gives an analysis about the complex structural features and the dynamic feed-back of the coal demand system in the electricity industry. It constructs the models of systematic dynamics of coal demand in the electricity industry and conducts emulation simulation. Study shows that electricity industry is still the chief factor promoting the increase of coal demand. The factors influencing coal demand in the electricity industry are so complex that the speed of economy, technological advances in energy-saving and policy regulating are playing important roles. Concerning policy regulation, in order to control the over-increase of coal demand in the electric industry, focus should be on adjusting the industry structure, lowering investment rates and perfecting investment structure. It is necessary to regulate the development of coal and electric power, to promote the management of energy-saving and advocating the contributions to energy-saving and consumption reduction, etc.