提高水库汛限水位的防洪风险分析

为了提高水库的水资源利用率,探讨水库提高汛限水位的可能性,根据东武仕水库1951—2000年入库洪水的统计特征,采用一阶自回归模型对入库洪水进行了模拟,并考虑了泄洪能力的不确定性及不同典型洪水过程和历史特大洪水等因素对东武仕水库汛限水位进行调整分析.研究结果表明,东武仕水库的汛限水位在目前102 m的基础上,可以进行适当的提高,但最多不要超过104 m,而此时库水位超过其设计洪水位106.68 m的风险不超过1.9600/;超过校核洪水位110.70 m的风险为0.0300/,并可增加蓄水约2×107m3,占设计兴利库容的13.800/,增加的经济效益较为可观.

Flood Risk Analysis of Heightening Limited Water Level of Reservoir in Flood Season

To improve the utilization of water resource,the possibility of heightening the limited water level was investigated.According to the statistical characteristics of inflow flood in Dongwushi reservoir from 1951 to 2000,seasonal AR(1) model was first used to simulate the reservoir inflow flood,besides,some effects such as the uncertainty of flood discharge capacity,the different representative flood and the historical large flood were taken into account when adjusting the limited water level.The results showed that the limited water level in Dongwushi reservoir could be heightened to 104 m from present 102 m.Under this situation,the risk of exceeding the design flood level 106.68 m was 1.960/0 and the risk of exceeding the checking flood level 110.70 m was 0.030/0,but at the same time,the reservoir can increase storage water by 20 million cubic meters,which was about 13.80/0 of the design available storage.The increased economic benefit is obvious.