基于BN的武器装备体系能力重要度分析

面对不断变化的未来不确定作战环境，在有限资源和技术水平下，武器装备体系顶层设计人员需要辨识与明确对体系建设目标影响最大的能力集合。提出用带置信度的区间数度量武器装备体系能力，用beta分布描述武器装备体系能力性能指标先验分布概率，在武器装备体系能力指标分解结构基础上构建了基于贝叶斯网络的武器装备体系能力重要度评估模型，利用贝叶斯网络的推理功能提出了能力重要度计算方法。最后，以空战武器装备体系为背景对所提方法的可行性和有效性进行了检验。

Capability weightiness degree analysis of weaponry system-of-systems based on BN theory

Facing on the continual changing of future combat conditions,the designer of weaponry system of systems(WSoS) needs to identify and recognize the capability set which is important to significant improvement in SoS effectiveness under limited resources and restricted technology.Using an interval number with confidence to measure WSoS capability and using beta distribution to picture the prior distribution of WSoS performance index are proposed.A WSoS capability weightiness degree analyzing model is constructed based on Bayesian network theory and WSoS capability index break-down structure,and a calculating method of capability weightiness degree by Bayesian inference is proposed.The result indicates that the proposed model is an effective analysis tool for WSoS capability weightiness degree.