中美稀土贸易现状与趋势

在分析中美稀土贸易现状的基础上，通过构建稀土化合物、稀土金属、稀土永磁材料的贸易网络模型，识别了2007—2021年中美稀土贸易的直接与间接路径，测算了中美贸易路径稳定性与中美贸易路径最低成本，分析了中美稀土贸易未来发展趋势。结果表明：（1）中美稀土贸易模式呈现差异化发展趋势，中美国际分工角色持续深化；（2）随着中美稀土贸易路径的不断发展，中国实施稀土贸易限制的有效性和可能性进一步降低；（3）中美在稀土贸易中的依赖呈现互补趋势，为两国的稀土产业和贸易合作提供契机。从国内产业升级、保障原材料供给、强化国际合作的角度提出了促进中国稀土产业稳定有序发展的建议。

Rare earth trade status and future trend between China and U.S.

The China-U.S. trade dispute has triggered worries about rare earth trade and the future of rare earth trade between U.S. and China has received public attentions. On the basis of analysis of the rare earth trade status between China and U.S. this paper constructs trade network models for rare earth compound, metal and permanent magnets to identify both direct and indirect trade paths between China and U.S., estimate path stabilities and the lowest transport costs, and analyze the future trend of rare earth trade between China and U. S. The results show that (1) the patterns of rare earth trade between the two countries will develop in different directions, each role of international division of labor will be more characteristic; (2) the limitations on rare earth trade are becoming weak as the paths between the two are enhanced; (3) rare earth import dependencies of China and U.S. will appear more complementary, which may provide an opportunity for both to develop cooperation in rare earth industry and trade. Based on these results, suggestions on strengthening cooperation and boosting industrial upgrading for China’ s rare earth industry and rare earth trade policies are provided.