中国稀土镨元素的供需失衡问题——基于镨的物质流分析

 基于动态物质流分析方法，以1990—2018年为时间边界，以中国大陆为空间边界，对镨的全生命周期流动情况和供需失衡问题进行了分析。结果表明：（1）1990—2018年中国累计开采超10万t的镨供下游产业应用，其中钕铁硼领域用镨量（6.9万t）占镨总用量的70%；（2）2009年以前，中国的镨供应充足（未登记消费3.1万t），2009年之后镨供应缺口逐年增大（未登记生产2.4万t）；（3）镨的进口量和出口量均在增长，其中进口以稀土矿和镨的中间产品为主，出口以镨的中间产品和最终产品为主；（4）截至2018年镨的在用存量超过了3.7万t，其中有23%在空调、电声耳机和磁选机中，但回收不足。研究建议：（1）提升镨的回收能力，重点关注即将迎来报废高峰期的空调、电声耳机、磁选机、电机和消费电子；（2）优化镨贸易结构，提升镨贸易价值，加大镨原矿及初级产品进口，并适当控制其出口，以缓解镨供应压力来解决供需失衡问题；（3）合理布局低碳产业发展并通过探索钕铁硼永磁体替代产品推动去镨钕技术发展。

On the imbalance between supply and demand of rare earth praseodymium in China: A praseodymium-based material flow analysis

Based on the dynamic material flow analysis method, this study takes 1990-2018 as the time boundary and mainland China as the spatial boundary to analyze the whole life cycle flow of praseodymium. It is found that 1) from 1990 to 2018, China mined more than 100000 t of praseodymium for downstream industrial applications, about 70% of which (68500 t of praseodymium) were used in NdFeB; 2) before 2009, China's praseodymium supply was sufficient (31000 t of unregistered consumption), and after 2009 the supply gap of praseodymium increased year by year (24000 t of unregistered production); 3) both import and export volumes of praseodymium increased, with import being mainly intermediate product of rare earth ores and praseodymium while export mainly intermediate product and final product of praseodymium; and 4) in 2018 the in-use stock of praseodymium exceeded 37000 t, of which 23% were in air conditioners, electroacoustic headphones and magnetic separators, with insufficient recycling. To resolve the problem between supply and demand this study put forward some suggestions, such as improving recycling capacity and technology of praseodymium, optimizing the structure of praseodymium trade, increasing the import of ore and primary products, properly controling export, and exploring NdFeB permanent magnet substitute products.