| 汉江洪水频率计算不确定性分析(Ⅱ):统计过程不确定性 |
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| 引用本文： | 许月萍,徐晓,Timon Klok,冉启华.汉江洪水频率计算不确定性分析(Ⅱ):统计过程不确定性[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2011(Z1):184-192. |
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| 作者姓名： | 许月萍 徐晓 Timon Klok 冉启华 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江大学水文与水资源研究所;University of Twente;Civil Engineering;Enschede;The Netherlands; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(50809058); 科技部国际科技合作计划(2010DFA24320); 教育部博士点基金项目(200803351029) |
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| 摘 要： | 使用NUSAP方法对洪水频率分析中的两种流量序列选取方法进行不确定性评价,然后对于选用的4种分布函数,分别使用矩法和极大似然法进行参数估计,针对不同的参数估计方法以及分布函数,应用NUSAP方法结合曲线拟合误差综合评价其中的不确定性.结果表明,超阈值方法是一种较为科学的时间序列选取方法,广义柏拉图分布和PⅢ分布对流量序列的拟合结果较好.NUSAP方法对上述分布函数和各种参数估计方法的评价结果更直观、更合理,是其在洪水频率分析领域应用的一个良好开端.
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| 关 键 词： | NUSAP方法 分布函数 参数估计 超阈值方法 |
Uncertainty Assessment of Flood Frequency Analysis in Hanjiang Basin(Ⅱ):Uncertainty in Statistical Process |
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| XU Yueping,XU Xiao,Timon Klok,RAN Qihua.Uncertainty Assessment of Flood Frequency Analysis in Hanjiang Basin(Ⅱ):Uncertainty in Statistical Process[J].Journal of Basic Science and Engineering,2011(Z1):184-192. |
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| Authors: | XU Yueping XU Xiao Timon Klok RAN Qihua |
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| Institution: | XU Yueping1,XU Xiao1,Timon Klok2,RAN Qihua1 (1.Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China,2.University of Twente,Civil Engineering,Enschede,The Netherlands) |
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| Abstract: | NUSAP method was used to first assess the uncertainty lying in two different methods to choose discharge series in flood frequency analysis.The method-of-moment and maximum likelihood method were applied to estimate parameters of the four selected distributions in this paper.For different parameter estimation methods and distributions,again NUSAP method was used to assess the uncertainty in combination with curve fitting error.It was shown that the POT method was more reasonable in choosing discharge series... |
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| Keywords: | NUSAP method distribution function parameter estimation POT method |
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