基于GTAP模型的北极航线经贸圈国家间经贸效应研究

北极海冰的持续融化使得北极航线通航环境不断改善，这将对全球海上贸易模式和经济格局产生深远影响，尤其是对北极航线经济贸易圈内的国家影响更甚.为探究北极航线的使用对其经济贸易圈内国家的宏观经济影响，该研究运用了全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)定量评估了北极航线的潜在经济影响，并得出以下结论：1)北极航线带来交通距离的缩短将对多数国家的实际GDP具有积极影响；2)北极航线的使用将不仅可以改善北极航线经济圈内的各国居民福利和贸易条件，也将显著地提升世界其他国家的居民福利和贸易条件；3)北极航线将为其经济贸易圈内国家带来产业结构调整效应；4)北极航线经济贸易圈内国家间的到岸价格有着较为明显的下降，其中自然资源、谷物与作物的到岸价格下降最为显著；5)北极航线的使用将为其经济贸易圈内的国家带来贸易转移效应，增进圈内国家间的经贸联系.

Research on the economic and trade effects among countries in the Arctic route economic and trade circle based on the GTAP model

The continuous melting of Arctic sea ice has improved the navigation environment of the Arctic route， which will have a profound impact on the global maritime trade model and economic pattern， especially for countries in the Arctic route economic and trade circle. In order to explore the macroeconomic impact of the use of the Arctic route on the countries in the economic and trade circle， a GTAP model was utilized to quantitatively evaluate the potential economic impact of the Arctic route， and conclusions were draw as follows. 1) The shortening of transportation distances brought about by the Arctic shipping routes has a positive impact on the real GDP of most countries. 2) The use of the Arctic route will not only improve the welfare and trade conditions of residents in the Arctic route economic circle， but also significantly improve the welfare and trade conditions of other countries in the world. 3) The Arctic route will bring industrial structure adjustment effects to the countries in its economic and trade circle. 4) The CIF prices between countries in the Arctic route economic and trade circle have dropped significantly， among which the CIF prices of natural resources， grains and crops have fallen most significantly. 5) The use of the Arctic route will bring about a trade transfer effect to the countries in the economic and trade circle， and enhance the economic and trade ties between the countries in the circle.