2012年人民币汇率的波动趋势、影响因素及政策建议分析

本文分析表明，2012年人民币汇率在“汇改”后累计升值幅度超过30％的基础上，已经达到经济基本面决定的均衡汇率水平。随着人民币汇率弹性的增加，人民币汇率将围绕这一均衡水平宽幅震荡。在影响人民币汇率波动的因素中，我国经济增速、美国第三轮量化宽松货币政策和欧债危机是决定汇率变动的最主要因素、我国央行应继续增加人民币汇率的灵活性，同时推进利率市场化等金融体系的改革，强化人民币汇率形成的市场基础、

Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation Trend, Infl uencing Factors and Policy Suggestions In 2012

This paper concludes that the RMB exchange rate has approached to the equilibrium exchange rate level determined by the macro-economic factors, on the basis of over 30% accumulated appreciation range since the mechanism reform of RMB exchange rate. With the growth of RMB exchange rate flexibility, RMB exchange rate will fluctuate around the equilibrium exchange rate in a wide range. Among the factors influencing the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate, the growth speed of Chinese economy, QE3 monetary policy of US and debt crisis of European are the main ones. Chinese cen- tral bank should propel the forming mechanism reform of RMB exchange rate continuously, and propel the reform of finan- cial system, such as the interest-marketing reform, for strengthening the market basis of RMB exchange rate forming.