彭州市国家级生态示范区建设的系统分析与预测

根据彭州市1995年～2002年的人口、资源、环境、经济和社会发展的数据,应用系统动力学、模糊系统分析和层次分析法(AHP)对彭州市经济生态系统的可持续发展的模式进行了探索和预测,得出影响自然生态环境质量的社会发展、区域环保、农村环保、城镇环保4个子系统发展比较平衡.彭州市地区生态环境质量主要取决于农村环境和自然生态,城镇环保尚有滞后.子系统都具有无限发展的趋势.其中社会发展表现最为突出,发展势头最为强劲;其次,自然生态和农村环境子系统也表现出好的发展态势.系统动力学的分析,识别出可持续发展的制约因子,并筛选出优化的发展配置模式.

The Systematic Analysis and Forecast on Ecological Construction and Sustainable Development of Ecological Demonstration Area in Pengzhou, Sichuan Province

According to the data of Pengzhou about population, resources, environment economy and social development from 1995 to 2002, the sustainable development pattern of Pengzhou's economic ecosystem is explored and foreseen in this paper by the application of systematic dynamics, vague systematic analysis and AHP. The conclusion is drawn that the development of the 4 subsystems affecting regional ecological environmental quality is balanced. The 4 subsystems are social development, regional environmental protection, rural environmental protection and urban environmental protection. Pengzhou's ecological environmental quality mainly depends on natural ecology and rural environment. The 4 subsystems have the tendency of infinite development, the social development develops most prominently and has most powerful impetus. Secondly, regional ecosystem and rural environment subsystems also have favorable development tendency. The analysis of systematic dynamics can distinguish restriction factor of sustainable development and select the optimal developmental disposition pattern.