水驱砂岩油藏特高含水期开发动态预测方法

水驱油田进入特高含水期后含油饱和度进一步降低，引起油水渗流特性发生突变，使得在大多数水驱油田广泛使用的开发指标预测方法误差增大。本文在前人研究的基础上利用贝克莱水驱油理论和韦尔奇含水饱和度公式将渗流特征关系、产量递减规律与典型水驱特征曲线进行联合求解，推导出多种包含时间参数的特高含水期开发指标预测新方法，此方法包含了水驱特征曲线法和递减规律的优点。通过油藏数值模拟结果对比验证得出二次型模型准确度最高，预测误差在允许范围内并且简便易实现，对实际油田开发具有一定的实际指导意义。

Water flooding performance prediction for sand reservoirs in ultra-high water cut stage

The oil saturation will decline during the ultra-high water cut stage which results in the relative permeability for water and oil changing dramatically. The changes bring errors when using general forecasting algorithm. In this paper a new development index forecasting algorithm is presented based on the new relationship between the water and oil relative permeability the typical displacement characteristic curve and production decline law. This algorithm contains a parameter involving time which integrates the advantages of water displacement curve and decline law. Through the comparison with the result from mathematical simulation it is found that quadratic model has the highest accuracy and the error is within the permitting range. The method is instructive for oil field development.