气候变化背景下我国北方农牧交错带生态风险评价

计算了我国北方农牧交错带中段(冀、蒙、辽交界地带)1961?2007年的气候风险指数，将其与土地易损性系数综合得到生态风险指数，划定生态风险级别，分析气候风险和生态风险的时间序列变化和空间分异规律。得出的结论主要为: 1) 1961 ?2007年，气候风险呈现增加趋势。空间上由东南向西北方向气候风险指数逐渐变大，风险增强；阿巴嘎旗风险极高，浑善达克沙地和科尔沁沙地周围旗县也处在高风险中或者有向高风险变化的趋势。2) 研究区域内，越向北方、向西方的区域生态风险级别越高，风险越大；4级高风险和5级极高风险区域主要集中在阿巴嘎旗南部浑善达克沙地地区和翁牛特旗中北部科尔沁沙地地区。3)生态风险级别较高的地区对草原覆盖度变化、气候变化都表现得更加敏感。

Assessment of Ecological Risk to Climate Change of the Farming-Pastoral Zigzag Zone in Northern China

Climate risk index and ecological risk index over the past 47 years (1961-2007) in the medial area of the farming-pastoral zigzag zone in Northern China were constructed and analyzed to find its local response to global climate change. The results show that: 1) during 1961 to 2007, the integrative trend of climate risk index was increasing, which meant an increasing climate risk. The index increased from the southeast to the northwest. Abagaqi, which located in Inner Mongolia Autonomous, showed an extremely high climaterisk. Hunshandake sandy land and Korqin sandy land andtheir surrounding areas also faced high risk, most probably got worse. 2) The spatial distribution of ecological risk index was in agreement of latitude inthis local scale, which marked a increasing risk at higher northern latitude. Ecological risk index also changed depending on longitude. It turned out that the risk got extremely worse in the west. High risk and extremely high risk areas centrally distributed in Hunshandake sandy land partly in the Southern Abagaqi and Korqin sandy land partly in the eastern Wengniuteqi. 3) The contrast between actual risk distribution and condition changed risk distribution obviously suggested that actually high risk areas were more sensitive to the change of grassland coverage density and climate change.