可能最大暴雨的一个数值试验研究

本文应用局地细网格降水数值模式,对汉江上游石泉以上流域的可能最大暴雨(PMP)的计算作了数值检验.检验结果表明:用对水汽场进行放大的水汽输送法,所得流域的降水反而减小;即使考虑极端情况,使水汽全部饱和,其他地区的降水虽得到放大,但此流域的降水仍稍有减小.这说明,对计算PMP的现有简化作法用降水动力模式进行一些检验和修正,是必要的.作者並提出,直接应用降水动力模式计算PMP,应是一个值都注意的方向.

A Numerical Simulation Study on Possible Maximum Precipitation

A numerical experiment for verifying the calculation of PMP of the upper reaches valley of Hanjiang. River with a lacal fine-mesh model of precipitation is made by the author. The results indicate that with the same change in the moisture field, the precipitation over the valley is decreased, but over other regions are increased, even in an extreme case of setting the moisture field saturated everywhere. It seems that the calculation of PMP should be performed with the numerical model directly. As the first step, it is necessary to examine and correct the simplified approaches being used in the PMP calculation with the numerical model of precipitation.