基于云模型和灰关联的油气圈闭多域信息评价

云模型是在传统模糊数学和概率统计的基础上提出的定性、定量转换模型。为了建立油气藏与圈闭面积、圈闭闭合幅度、油气运移通道、地层孔隙度、烃源生油与圈闭形成时间、空间匹配性等因素的定性定量关系，传统的多域信息评价方法多采用因素硬化值构建定性定量关系模型，这很大程度受制于专家的知识和经验。结合云模型和灰关联分析，考虑油气圈闭评价因素的模糊性、随机性和小样本不确定性，实现圈闭多域信息的定性与定量间的转换，提出了一种油气圈闭多域信息评价新方法。对中国西北顺托果勒某地区提取的圈闭进行评价，分别划分出了Ⅰ、Ⅱ和Ⅲ类圈闭，其中Ⅰ类圈闭占圈闭总数的37.5％；Ⅱ类圈闭占圈闭总数的37.5％；Ⅲ类圈闭占圈闭总数的25％，与实际开发评价结果吻合。

MULTI-DOMAIN INFORMATION ASSESSMENT OF OIL & GAS TRAPS BASED ON CLOUD MODEL AND GREY RELATIONAL ANALYSIS

Cloud model，which is proposed based on the traditional fuzzy mathematics and probability statistics theory，is a conversion model between qualitative concept and quantitative values.In order to establish the quantitative and qualitative relationship between oil & gas reservoir and the trap area，trap closure amplitude，hydrocarbon migration channel，formation porosity，the relationship among the oil generation，trap forming and special compatibility，the imposed threshold was frequently involved in traditional way of multi-domain information assessment to build the relation model，which is limited by the experiences of experts to a great extent.With consideration on the fuzziness，randomness and uncertainty of small samples，a new approach to multi-domain information assessment based on cloud model and grey relational analysis is presented in this paper.With assessment to the traps of Shuntuoguole in Northwest China，type Ⅰ，Ⅱand Ⅲ traps are identified.Among them，typeⅠ accounts for 37.5% of the total，type Ⅱ takes up 37.5% and the proportion of type Ⅲ is 25%，which is consistent with practical development assessment.