1525-2000年强火山喷发与ENSO事件的关系

根据美国Smithsonian研究院的全球火山计划发布火山喷发年表,筛选出1525-2000年强火山喷发(火山喷发指数IVE≥4),并分为强火山喷发(IVE=4)和极强火山喷发(IVE≥5);利用Gergis重建了1525-2000年ENSO 年表,得到不同类型的ENSO 事件,分别对强火山喷发和ENSO 事件进行10a累计统计.对1525-2000年强火山喷发次数和ENSO事件次数进行匹配.结果表明:1525-2000年,强火山喷发出现195次,其中IVE=4的强火山喷发153次,极强火山喷发42次;ENSO 事件出现399次,包括188次厄尔尼诺事件和211次拉尼娜事件.强火山喷发后的ENSO 事件次数明显多于出现前2a内无强火山喷发的ENSO 事件次数,且强火山喷发后的ENSO 事件中厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜次数相当,而出现前2a内无强火山喷发的ENSO 事件中拉尼娜事件明显多于厄尔尼诺事件.强火山喷发后的厄尔尼诺事件出现137次,拉尼娜出现136次,两者出现次数持平.不同强度的火山喷发后,厄尔尼诺事件与拉尼娜事件出现概率基本相等. 

Correlating strong volcano eruptions and ENSO events 1525-2000

Strong volcanic eruptions (VEI(volcanic explosivity index)≥≥4) from 1525-2000 were extracted from dataset provided by Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanic Programme.Volcanic eruptions were divided into 2 types:eruptions with IvE=4),and eruptions with IVE≥5.ENSO chronology reconstructed by Gergis was used to divide ENSO into 2 types:El Nino and La Nina.Ten year cumulative numbers of large volcanic eruption and ENSO events were analyzed.Then strong volcanic eruptions were matched with ENSO from 1525 to 2000.A total of 193 strong volcanic eruptions from 1525-2000 were identified:153 eruptions with IVE of 4,and 42 eruptions with IVE≥5.A total of 399 ENSO events were found:188 El Nino events and 211 La Nina events.The number of ENSO events within 2 years after strong volcanic eruptions was significantly more than ENSO events without strong volcanic eruptions within 2 years earlier.After strong volcanic eruptions,El Nino and La Nina had about equivalent numbers:137 El Nino events and 136 La Nina events.However,the number of La Nina without large volcanic eruptions within the 2 years earlier was significantly more than El Nino.The number of El Nino events and La Nina events were almost identical after volcano eruptions of IVE=4 and IVE≥5.