国内生产总值对建筑业增长影响的计量分析

建筑业产出在很大程度上受到整体经济环境影响。采用序列稳定性检验（ADF）技术、协整检验技术和误差较正模型，分析了中国过去20年间国内生产总值（GDP）增长对建筑业增长影响。发现：中国建筑业与GDP之间有长期稳定的均衡增长关系，因此长远来看，建筑业会随着整体经济增长而发展壮大。另外，我国建筑业增长相对于GDP有1－2年滞后期，GDP每增长1％，建筑业会在1－2年后增长1．5％－1．6％，所以根据目前国家宏观经济增长情况，可以预测未来短期内的建筑业大致增长状况，这对于建筑业和房地产投资有指导意义。

A Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Growth of GDP on Construction Output in China and its Economic Implications

Using ADF technique, cointegration test technique and error correction model (ECM), this article studies impact of growth of GDP over the past twenty years on construction output in China. This article finds that there exists a long run equilibrium relationship between GDP and construction growth. Thus, the construction industry will in the long run keep growing with growth of aggregate output in China. In addition, growth of construction output in China lags behind GDP for one to two years. A growth of one percent in GDP will lead to 1.5 to 1.6 percent rises in construction output after one or two years. So, in the short run we can roughly predict growth of the construction industry in one to two years on the basis of current national macroeconomic changes. This is implicative for investing in construction and real estate.