| 人民币均衡实际汇率测度与准确性检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 王春平,刘传哲.人民币均衡实际汇率测度与准确性检验[J].科技导报(北京),2007,25(3):56-63. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王春平 刘传哲 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国矿业大学管理学院 江苏徐州221008 |
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| 摘 要： | 我国在经济转轨过程中,汇率体制改革和政策调整会使人民币汇率的数据生成过程发生结构突变。在发展中国家均衡实际汇率模型的基础上,建立了基于结构突变的人民币均衡实际汇率模型,通过考察国际收支差额与汇率失调的关系,检验了测算结果的准确性。实证结果显示,在考虑结构突变的情况下,多数基本经济要素变量与人民币实际有效汇率存在显著的长期均衡关系,人民币汇率在2002年以后确实存在一定程度的低估。现实汇率的失调对国际收支平衡的影响非常显著。
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| 关 键 词： | 结构突变 均衡汇率 汇率失调 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-7857(2007)03-0056-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 10 20 2006 12:00AM |
Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate of RMB and Its Validation |
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| WANG Chunping,LIU Chuanzhe.Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate of RMB and Its Validation[J].Science & Technology Review,2007,25(3):56-63. |
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| Authors: | WANG Chunping LIU Chuanzhe |
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| Institution: | School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221008, Jiangsu Province, China |
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| Abstract: | Under the influence of adjustment of our economic policy and inflation, the Data Generating Process (DGP) of RMB real effective exchange rates may change its structure during the course of commercial activities in China. A co-integration-model of the equilibrium real exchange rate of RMB is proposed based on the structure changes of the DGP of RMB, and its validation is shown by analyzing the relation between the balance of payments and the maladjusted exchange rate. The result indicates that an obvious relationship exists between many fundamental variables and RMB real effective exchange rates, and the RMB real effective exchange rate has been under-valued in some degrees since 2002. The misalignment of exchange rate has a marked influence on the balance of payments in China. |
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| Keywords: | structural change equilibrium real exchange rate misalignment of exchange rate |
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