基于包容性检验的舰船装备维修费组合预测

针对舰船装备维修费组合预测中，容易出现预测模型数量多于用于组合预测的样本数量，以及在已有舰船装备维修费组合预测模型中增加一个预测时，可能会降低组合预测性能的问题，通过对现有两模型包容性检验方法的分析，提出了带有截距项的多模型组合包容性检验。在此基础上，通过按模型的优劣次序逐步进行包容性检验和组合的思路，提出了基于包容性检验的舰船装备维修费组合预测模型选择方法，不仅可以降低包容性检验的计算量，而且可以提高舰船装备维修费组合预测的性能。

Combined forecasting of ship equipment maintenance cost based on encompassing tests

To solve the problems that the number of forecasting models is bigger than samples and that the performance of combined forecasting may reduce when increasing a forecasting model in combined forecasting of ship equipment maintenance costs, the existing methods of two models′ encompassing tests are analyzed, then, the multi-models combining encompassing tests with an included are presented. With these foundations, according to the idea of stepwise processing encompassing tests by the relative merits of each model, the method of model selection for combined forecasting of ship equipment maintenance costs based on encompassing tests is presented, which can not only reduce the computation but also improve the performance of the combined forecasting for ship equipment maintenance cost.