| 我国企业退休职工养老金预测的数学模型——以山东省为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 段克峰,赵慧霞. 我国企业退休职工养老金预测的数学模型——以山东省为例[J]. 甘肃教育学院学报(自然科学版), 2014, 0(1): 8-11,22 |
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| 作者姓名： | 段克峰 赵慧霞 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]陇东学院数学与统计学院,甘肃庆阳745000 [2]兰州文理学院,甘肃兰州730000 |
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| 摘 要： | 以山东省某企业职工为例研究我国企业退休职工养老金预测模型．根据养老金计算的方法建立了养老金替代率和养老金收支平衡的数学模型；运用曲线拟合法建立了预测2011年至2035年山东省职工年平均_T资的数学模型；以山东省某企业某职工为例对模型求解，结果表明：若不深化现行养老金制度的改革，未来25年内随着我国人口老龄化进程的加速，即使养老金替代率不超过58．5％，也难以阻止养老金缺口逐渐增大的趋势．
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| 关 键 词： | 养老金 替代率 缺口 数学模型 预测 |
Mathematical Model of Pensions Predicted for Retirees in Our Country --Take Shandong Province for Instance |
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| DUAN Ke-feng,ZHAO Hui-xia. Mathematical Model of Pensions Predicted for Retirees in Our Country --Take Shandong Province for Instance[J]. Journal of Gansu Education College(Natural Science Edition), 2014, 0(1): 8-11,22 |
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| Authors: | DUAN Ke-feng ZHAO Hui-xia |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Longdong University, Qingyang 745000, China; 2. Lanzhou University of Arts and Science, Lanzhou 730000, China) |
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| Abstract: | Mathematical model of pensions predicted for retirees in our country is studied, taking enterprise workers of Shandong province for instance. The mathematical model of substituting rate of the pension and balance of payments for the pension is established on the basis of calculational methods of the pension; the mathematical model for the average yearly salary between 2011--2035 for workers in Shandong province is established by curve fitting method. The results show that if the current pension system isn＇t intensified, the tendency of crescent pension gap will be difficult to prevent even if substituting rate of the pension cannot exceed 58.5% with the acceleration of the process of China＇s aging population in the next 25 years. |
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| Keywords: | pension substituting rate gap mathematical model predict |
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