| 中国能耗的GM(1,N)模型及模型评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 龚灏,周仲礼,罗强,王成善. 中国能耗的GM(1,N)模型及模型评价[J]. 成都理工大学学报(自然科学版), 2000, 27(4) |
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| 作者姓名： | 龚灏 周仲礼 罗强 王成善 |
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| 作者单位： | 成都理工学院应用数学系,成都,610059;共青团四川省委 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用灰色理论建立了中国能源消耗量的残差修正模型 ,并对已有数据资料及预测结果进行统计分析检验。结果表明 ,模型具有较高的可信度和精确度 ;同时 ,随着原始数据的不断变化 ,可对模型及时进行调整和修正 ,表明模型具有较强的适应性。
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| 关 键 词： | 能耗 灰色理论 预测模型 评价 |
CHINA'S ENERGY CONSUMPTION GM(1,N) AND ITS EVALUATION |
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| GONG Hao,ZHOU Zhong-li,WANG Cheng-shan,LUO Qiang. CHINA'S ENERGY CONSUMPTION GM(1,N) AND ITS EVALUATION[J]. Journal of Chengdu University of Technology: Sci & Technol Ed, 2000, 27(4) |
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| Authors: | GONG Hao ZHOU Zhong-li WANG Cheng-shan LUO Qiang |
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| Affiliation: | GONG Hao 1,ZHOU Zhong li 1,LUO Qiang 2,WANG Cheng shan 1 |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, a difference modulating model of China's energy consumption is established by exploiting the grey system theory. And then the data produced by the model is compared by means of statistic analysis with the yearly facts (1953~1997). The results show that the model is to a great extent reliable and accurate. What's more, the model assumes flexibility as well as adaptability on account of further data to be utilized in future to check and revise it. |
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| Keywords: | energy consumption grey system theory forecast model evaluation |
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