新经济形势下汇率波动会我国出口的影响——基于面板数据的实证检验

我国在2005年汇率改革后,进一步放开了汇率波动幅度.2007年爆发的全球金融危机更是加剧了汇率震荡.选取2001年-2008年间中国与12个主要贸易出口国或地区的面板数据,分为两个对称时段,运用经典引力模型实证检验了新经济形势下汇率波动对于出口的影响.研究发现,在2001年到2004年时段,汇率波动对出口的影响并不显著,但从2005年到2008年的新经济状况下,汇率波动的增加明显抑制了出口.因此,建议在金融危机新背景下,政府应加强汇率管制以求稳定,增强本国出口商的信心,暂时不宜进一步放开汇率.

The Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on China's Export under New Economic Situation: An Empirical Study Based on Panel Data

China's exchange rate reform in 2005 changed the old exchange rate system into a managed floating one which peg to a basket of currencies, further liberalizing the exchange rate fluctuations. Additionally, the global financial crisis from 2007 has exacerbated exchange rate fluctuations substantially. This paper collect panel data from 2001 to 2008 between China and its 12 major trading partners, and test the effect of exchange rate volatilities on exports using the classical gravity model. Our results show that the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on exports is not significant during the period of 2001 to 2004, but it inhibits exports significantly in the period of 2005 to 2008. Therefore, it is proposed that under the new background of financial crisis, the Government should strengthen the stability of exchange rate in order to enhance the confidence of domestic exporters, and it is not the time to further liberalize the exchange rate.