广东极端降水的三参数概率分布模式对比

 采用包括广义极值分布、威布尔分布、广义逻辑斯特分布和皮尔逊3型分布在内的4种三参数概率分布模式推算广东省85个气象站历年日最大降水不同重现水平的分位数。主要结果如下：1）参数估计结果表明不存在普遍适用的极端降水概率分布模式；2）广东极端降水以珠江三角洲和沿海较为突出。其中，清远、汕尾、阳江为广东三大极端降水中心区；3）采用4种概率分布模式推算的极端降水重现水平差别很大。东

Comparative Analysis on Three-parameter Probability Distribution Models for Extreme Precipitation in Guangdong Province

Four probability distribution models,generalized extreme value distribution,Weibull distribution,log-logistic distribution and Pearson type-III distribution,were used to calculate the different return levels of maximum daily precipitation for 85 stations in Guangdong province.The main results are as follows: 1) The results of parameter estimation indicate that there is no universally applicable extreme precipitation probability distribution model;2) The extreme precipitation occurs more frequently in the Pearl River Delta and the coastal areas of Guangdong among which Qingyuan,Shanwei and Yangjiang are three extreme precipitation centers;3) The return levels of extreme precipitation differ greatly between the calculations of four probability distribution models.