太仓市二氧化碳排放量估算及影响因素分析

研究依据2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南中的方法对2003—2008年江苏太仓市一次能源消耗产生的CO2排放量进行了估算,并利用Kaya恒等式进行了分解分析,同时计算了2003—2008年当地的单位国内生产总值(GDP)CO2排放量(来自一次能源消耗);结果表明2003—2008年当地一次能源消耗产生的CO2排放总量呈上升趋势,而单位GDP CO2排放量呈现倒U型曲线;经济的发展和能源效率是影响排放量的主要因素,而发展清洁能源、改善能源结构则是未来当地降低由能源消耗产生的CO2排放量、实现低碳生态发展模式的重要战略选择.

Calculation of Carbon Dioxide Emission in Taicang and Its Influencing Factors

A calculation of carbon dioxide emission from primary energy consumption in Taicang City of Jiangsu Province from 2003 to 2008 was conducted with the method in 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories.Then Kaya Identity was used to make a decomposition of the calculation result.The carbon dioxide intensity per GDP during 2003—2008 was also calculated.The decomposition results indicate that the local carbon dioxide emission appears an uptrend during 2003—2008 while the carbon dioxide intensity per GDP shows a reserved U shaped curve,and the economic development and the energy efficiency are the main factors which affect the emission amount.Developing clean energy and improving the energy structure are the important strategic choices for the carbon dioxide emission reduction in Taicang.