洱海流域水环境污染与水环境变化的关联分析

基于2007年—2017年洱海流域水环境数据，以水污染排放总量、排放结构、排放时空变化表征洱海流域水环境污染的综合特征，采用灰色关联分析探究洱海流域水环境污染部门、污染地区与水环境变化的关联程度.结果表明：1)2007年—2017年，洱海流域污染等标排放量呈现“先增后降”趋势，TN是洱海流域主要污染物.2)2007年—2017年，洱海流域水环境污染主要来自面源污染，其中畜禽养殖污染排放量平均占比达53.17%，是流域主要污染部门.3)2007年—2017年，洱海流域等标污染排放量时空分布不均、空间差异缩小，高排污区集中分布在海北地区，与2007年相比，2017年高、低排污乡镇均有所减少.4)2007年—2017年，洱海流域各污染部门与洱海水质变化具有较强的关联度，关联度总体呈“阶段性波动”特征.5)2007年—2017年，洱海流域各乡镇污染排放与洱海水质变化具有较强的关联度，关联度最强的三个乡镇为：上关镇、湾桥镇、海东镇.据此，提出以产业结构调整为主线的水污染“结构减排”对策建议.

Correlating analysis of water environment pollution and water environment change in Erhai River Basin

Based on the water environment data of the Erhai River Basin from 2007 to 2017， the comprehensive characteristics of the water environment pollution in the Erhai River Basin are characterized by the total amount of water pollution discharge， the emission structure and the temporal and spatial variation of the discharge. Grey relational analysis was used to explore the degree of correlation between water pollution departments， polluted areas and water environment changes in Erhai River Basin. The results show as follows. 1) During 2007-2017， the standard emissions of pollution in Erhai River Basin showed a trend of “increasing first and then decreasing”， TN was the main pollutant in the Erhai River Basin. 2) During 2007-2017， the water environmental pollution in Erhai River Basin mainly came from non-point source pollution， among which the pollution emissions from livestock and poultry breeding accounted for 53.17% on average， which was the main pollution department in the basin. 3)During 2007-2017， the time-space distribution and spatial difference of standard pollution emissions in the Erhai River Basin were uneven， and the high-emission areas were concentrated in the northern region of Erhai Lake. Compared with 2007， there were fewer high-emission and low-emission towns in 2017. 4)During 2007-2017， the pollution departments in the Erhai Lake Basin had a strong correlation with the water quality change of Erhai Lake， and the correlation was characterized by “periodic fluctuations”. 5)During 2007-2017， there was a strong correlation between the pollution discharge of towns and villages in Erhai Lake Basin and the water quality change of Erhai Lake. The three towns with the strongest correlation were Shangguan town， Wanqiao town and Haidong town. Accordingly， the countermeasures and suggestions of “structural emission reduction” of water pollution are put forward.