| 改进的离散人口预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 穆晓霞,杨峰,王瑞先,刘静乐. 改进的离散人口预测模型[J]. 河南师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2008, 36(5) |
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| 作者姓名： | 穆晓霞 杨峰 王瑞先 刘静乐 |
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| 作者单位： | 河南师范大学,计算机与信息技术学院,河南,新乡,453007 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对我国城市化步伐加快、性别比持续升高等具体现状,引入了女婴比等参数,改进了以往的离散人口预测模型,得出了我国人口总量、老龄化指数等在中长期内的发展变化规律,预测结果合理,为相关部门制定人口政策提供了有益的数据支持.
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| 关 键 词： | 离散人口发展模型 老龄化指数 2χ分布 女婴比 |
Improved Discrete Population Dynamics Model in Population Forecast |
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| MU Xiao-xia,YANG Feng,WANG Rui-xian,LIU Jing-le. Improved Discrete Population Dynamics Model in Population Forecast[J]. Journal of Henan Normal University(Natural Science), 2008, 36(5) |
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| Authors: | MU Xiao-xia YANG Feng WANG Rui-xian LIU Jing-le |
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| Abstract: | Aiming at several concrete conditions,such as speeding up of urbanization step in our country,a steady increase in the sex ratio and so on,the research improves the previous discrete population dynamics model considering parameters of the female infant ratio.The law of population size,urbanization degree and aged index in mid-long term are obtained.These results tally with populations' development and can contribute to the designation of relevant population policies. |
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| Keywords: | discrete population dynamics models aged index χ2 distribution female infant ratio |
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