我国“十二五”规划节能目标可行性分析

本文以我国"十二五"规划关于节能的总目标为主线,建立了全国能源强度的影响因素模型,预测了宏观经济各影响因素在2015年的变动范围,从三种情形讨论了"十二五"节能目标的可行性。结论认为2015年我国能够完成"十二五"规划的节能目标,但是需要对能源强度的影响因素进行调整:①继续调整优化产业结构,提高第三产业的比重;②完善能源价格体系:在2012～2015年的三年时间内,能源价格指数需要提高20.39%,年均提高6.38%;③实现能源消费多元化,降低煤炭消费比重;④优化外贸结构;⑤充分发挥技术进步对能源利用效率提高的作用。

Feasibility analysis of China's "12th Five-Year" Plan energysaving target

This paper puts the feasibility of the energy conservation goal of "Twelfth Five-Year" plan as the main line and establishes a model of influencing-factors at the national level. Secondly, the paper preinstalls the range of the influencing-factors through scenario analysis and further discusses the feasibility of "Twelfth Five-Year" energy saving target in three situations. Finally, a conclusion is obtained that the "Twelfth Five-Year" energy saving target could be fulfilled under the premise that the influence-factors of energy intensity be adjusted: Continue to adjust and optimize the industrial structure and increase the proportion of the tertiary industry; Improve the energy price system: the price index of energy needs to be increased by 20.39% with an average annual increase of 6.38% from 2012 to 2015; Realize the diversification of energy consumption and reduce the proportion of coal consumption; Optimize the foreign trade structure; Give full play to the role of technological progress on improving energy efficiency.