| 基于证据理论的IT项目风险因素评估方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨善林,陆文星,梁昌勇.基于证据理论的IT项目风险因素评估方法[J].合肥工业大学学报(自然科学版),2006,29(12):1485-1488. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨善林 陆文星 梁昌勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 合肥工业大学,管理学院,安徽,合肥,230009 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金
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高等学校博士学科点专项科研项目 |
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| 摘 要： | IT项目因其复杂性、不确定性等特点,难以准确度量风险因素的风险等级。为了更好地评估IT项目风险因素的风险等级,本文引入证据理论来处理风险因素的不确定性,融合专家的评判来减少风险因素度量的复杂性,评估出风险因素的等级。在资源有限的情况下,采取相应措施来规避风险或减少风险因素的影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 证据理论 IT项目 风险管理 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-5060(2006)12-1485-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年12月8日 |
Method of evaluating risk factors in IT projects based on evidence theory |
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| YANG Shan-lin,LU Wen-xing,LIANG Chang-yong.Method of evaluating risk factors in IT projects based on evidence theory[J].Journal of Hefei University of Technology(Natural Science),2006,29(12):1485-1488. |
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| Authors: | YANG Shan-lin LU Wen-xing LIANG Chang-yong |
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| Abstract: | Because of the complexity and uncertainty in IT projects,it is hard to accurately measure the risk level of risk factors.To better evaluate the level of risk factors in IT projects,the Dempster-Shafer's evidence theory is applied to deal with the uncertainty of the risk factors.This method can syncretize the judgments of experts to reduce the complexity of measuring risk factors and evaluate the level of the risk factor,by which some measures may be adopted to evade risk or decrease the effect of the risk factor with limited resources. |
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| Keywords: | evidence theory IT project risk management |
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