中国电力消费影响因素权重的分位数回归研究

通过加权最小二乘法(WLS)和分位数(QR)回归比较性研究电力能源消费影响因素的影响权重,分位数回归技术则更能详尽阐明不同消费需求下各影响权重的变化:电价、能源效率改进、消费支出能力、电力价格体制改革、人口与电力消费需求之间存在长期均衡的关系,并通过多重验证指标验证模型和结果的合理性;能源效率改进和电价控制是影响电力能源消费的2个重要因素,在不同分位数上各个因素影响权重存在差异;特别发现"高人口增长率并不必然伴随高电力消费需求量"。并提出不同分位数下相关政策建议。

Quantile regression study on weights of influencing factors of China's electrical energy consumption

The article tries to mare the comparative analysis of the weights of influencing factors of electrical energy consumption by weighted least squares （WLS） and quantile regression （QR）, with quantile regression expounding more clearly the changes of weights in the condition of different consumer demands. There is a long-run equilibrium relationship among electricity, price, energy efficiency improvement, consumers＂ spending capacity, price reform of electricity, population and consumption of electrical energy. The reasonableness of the models and the results are verified by multi-target. Energy efficiency improvement and price control are the most important two factors which affect consumption of the electrical energy. In particular, we find that high-population growth rate is not necessarily accompanied by a high demand for electricity. The weights of influ- encing factors are different in different quantiles. Finally, suggestions on policy are made on the basis of the conclusion of different quantiles.