混合储备模式下洪涝灾害应急物资配置结构优化

为了提升洪涝灾害应急响应能力,提出应急物资三主体混合储备模式,根据三主体供应特点和物资需求条件,构建了以最小政府成本和最低灾害损失为目标,以保障能力、政府成本及企业利润为约束的洪涝灾害应急物资配置模型,并通过模型的求解及简化,确定了不同储备模式的适用范围。在对以块石为代表的洪涝灾害应急物资算例计算的基础上,分析比较了不同储备模式下的最优配置结构,并针对与政府决策相关的重要参数进行了敏感度分析,结果表明,对于以块石为代表的洪涝灾害应急物资,建议采用以政府直接储备为主、委托企业储备为辅、社会力量代为储备为补充的储备模式,物资的现货市场采购成本会影响物资储备总量,政府储备库采购储备成本、企业期权价格会影响物资配置结构。

Optimization of allocation structure of flood emergency materials under mixed reserve mode

In order to improve the emergency response ability of flood disasters, a three-agent mixed reserve model of emergency materials is put forward in this paper. Based on the analysis of the supply of the three-agent reserves and the demand of materials, a materials reserve distribution model is established, which aims at the minimum government cost and the lowest disaster loss. The allocation model of materials reserves is restricted by the guarantee capacity of each subject, government cost and enterprise profit. Through the simplification of the model, the applicable scope of different reserve modes is determined. Based on the calculation of the examples of flood emergency materials represented by block stone, the optimal allocation structure under different reserve modes is analyzed and compared, and the sensitivity analysis is carried out for the important parameters related to government decision-making. The conclusions are as follows: for the flood emergency materials represented by block stone, it is suggested that the reserve mode should be based on the direct reserve of the government, supplemented by the reserve of enterprises, and supplemented by the reserve of social forces; the purchase cost of materials in the spot market will affect the total amount of material reserves, thus the purchase and reserve cost of government reserve and the price of enterprise option will affect the material reserve structure.