| 基于改进Bass模型的短生命周期产品需求预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 姬长虹,丁锡海.基于改进Bass模型的短生命周期产品需求预测[J].科学技术与工程,2010,10(10). |
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| 作者姓名： | 姬长虹 丁锡海 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 上海交通大学中美物流研究院,上海,200030
2. 上海交通大学机械与动力工程学院,上海,200240 |
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| 基金项目： | 上海市网络化制造与企业信息化重点实验室开放基金项目(KF200903)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 总结了国内外对于Bass模型的扩展研究,并根据短生命周期产品自身的特征,在原Bass模型的基础上加入了价格影响因子来预测需求。利用同类产品的历史销售数据来进行模型的参数估计,并用于新产品的市场预测,得出了较好的预测效果。同时,也发现参数估计过程中对于各种已有产品的权数的确定是非常复杂而且重要的过程,这一点将直接影响预测的准确性。
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| 关 键 词： | 短生命周期产品 Bass模型 需求预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009/12/18 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2010/1/19 0:00:00 |
Forecasting Demand of Short Life Cycle Products Based on modified Bass Model |
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| JiChanghong and Ding Xihai.Forecasting Demand of Short Life Cycle Products Based on modified Bass Model[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2010,10(10). |
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| Authors: | JiChanghong and Ding Xihai |
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| Institution: | Sino-US Global Logistics Institute/a>;Shanghai Jiaotong University/a>;Shanghai 200240/a>;P.R.China/a>;School of Mechanics and Power Engineering/a>;Shanghai Jiaotong University1/a>;P.R.China |
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| Abstract: | The expansion of Bass models research and adds a price parameter to the Bass model to forecast the demand of short life cycle products according to the characteristics of the products are summarized.The historical sales data of similar products is used to estimate the parameters of the model,and obtain better prediction for new products.The parameter estimation which directly affects the accuracy of the forecasts is a very complex and important process. |
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| Keywords: | short life cycle product Bass model forecast demand |
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