政策性地权安排对土地利用变化的影响研究--基于江西省丰城市退耕还林农户问卷调查的一个分析

建立了政策性地权安排对土地利用影响的概念模型和理论模型，在此基础上，以“退耕还林”为例，选择了一组解释变量，运用“退耕还林”农户问卷调查数据，建立了农户“退耕还林”决策模型．采用未加权模型、面积加权模型和农户收入加权模型，通过3种模型的运行结果，在农户尺度上分析了“退耕还林”政策中土地产权安排对土地利用变化的影响．对模型运行结果的分析表明，土地资源的稀缺程度、非农就业水平、政策性土地产权安排都对农户退耕决策产生了不同程度的影响，而在“退耕还林”的政策性土地产权安排中，不同的土地产权要素及其内容对农户退耕有不同的影响．具体而言，直接影响土地收益的政策性土地产权对于退耕有重要影响，同时政府对土地使用的管制也有显影响；影响农户退耕决策因素存在区域差异，根据影响因素的区域差异把研究区域内的3个乡镇的农户退耕决策划分为3种类型：土地资源配置型、利益诱制型和权利诱制型．最后，结合分析结论，就如何完善“退耕还林”政策中的土地产权制度安排促进生态友好型的土地利用变化提出了建议：完善土地收益分享机制、提高农户土地产权意识和适当运用政府规制等。

The Impact of Land Property Rights Defined by the Government Policy on Land Use Change and its Regional Difference:A Case Study of Farm Household Returning Farmland to Forest in Fengcheng City,Jiangxi Province

In the paper, a conceptual model and a theoretical model of land property rights defined by policy influencing land use change were established. Taking the policy of returning farmland to forest as an example, the paper chose a series of explanatory variables according to empirical judgment and theoretical analysis. With the data achieved by farm household questionnaire surveying, an econometric model simulating farm household decision making of returning farmland to forest was established. The model parameters were estimated by three approaches which were the regression method weighted by farm household's income, the regression method weighted by farmland area and the unweighted ordinary least square estimation method. With the results of the three methods, it was analyzed that how land property rights defined by the policy of returning farmland to forest influenced the land use change in the farm household level. The results show that the arable land per capita, off-farm work participation and the land property rights defined by returning farmland to forest policy have remarkable influence on land use change in the level of farm household. As far as land property rights defined by returning farmland to forest policy are concerned, different land property right issues have different impact on farm household's returning farmland to forest. In detail, the rights directly relevant to the land return have significant influence on farm household's decision of returning farmland to forest, and the government regulation also has the effect. Besides, the result shows that there is regional difference in their impact on land use change. The villages and towns in the research region are divided, according to the main factor influencing the farm household's deeision making on land use change, into three types: land use change forced by land resource allocation, land use change induced by interest and land use change driven by land property rights arrangement. Finally, according to the conclusions, the paper puts forward some suggestions on how to improve the institutional arrangement of land property rights in execeuting the policy of returning farmland to forest in order to boost the environment-friendly land use change. These suggestions can improve the land return sharing mechanism, reinforce farm households' awareness of land property rights as well as appropriate use of government's regulation and so on.