加工贸易与我国经济增长关系的回归模型分析

利用回归分析的方法分析加工贸易与我国经济增长的关系，估计了加工贸易的贡献程度．通过建立最优回归方程，得到了我国经济增长与各变量的线性方程．并通过主成分分析和聚类分析，提出了加工贸易对我国经济影响的具体形式，并表明加工贸易和一般贸易在不同阶段对我国经济影响是不同的．将20多年来我国的贸易分为3个阶段，这符合我国对外贸易政策的阶段性，并估计了这3个阶段的加工贸易对我国经济增长的贡献率。

Rregression analysis of the relationship between the processing trade and our country's economic growth

We estimate the contribution of processing trade by making use of the regression analysis method to analyze the relationship between the processing trade and our country＇s economic growth. Through the establishment of the optimal regression equation, we derive a linear equation of Chinese economic growth and the variables. Furthermore, we propose a specific form in which the processing trade affects our country＇s economic growth. We can see that the processing trade and general trade have different effects on our country＇s economy in different stages by using the principal component analysis and cluster analysis. We divide the past twenty - odd years＇ processing trade into three stages which conforms with the stages of our country＇s foreign trade policy. Finally, the processing trade＇s contributions to the economic growth of China in these stages are estimated.