油气田产量预测的一种功能模拟模型

论述了油气田开发系统的非线性特征，特别是描述系统变化的产量指标在整个开发过程中的非线性．认为油气田累积产量随时间呈不对称“Ｓ”型有限增长；并基于不对称有限增长信息的微分方程，提出了一种预测油气田产量的功能模拟模型及其相应的参数求解方法．同时，文章还对油气田产量兴衰的四个阶段，以及油气田瞬时产量和年产量的关系进行了研究．模型从系统辨识理论和控制论的观点出发，从时间流中考察油气田产量系统的非线性特征，具有多功能性．它不但可以预测油气田的累积产量、瞬时产量和年产量，而且可以预测油气田的可采储量，同时还可以预测最高瞬时产量、最高年产量及其发生时间与相应时刻的累积产量，还可预测年产量与瞬时产量兴衰过程的时间界线．经实例验证表明，模型具有很好的适用性和有效性．

A Functional Simulation Model for Predicting Reservoir Production

This paper discusses the non-linear characterisiics of reservoir exploitation systems ,especially the non-lincar charactcristics of production indexes describing the changes of the systems in the processof exploitation. The increasing of cumulative production with time is regarded as limited and unsymmetrically sigmoid. According to the differential equaiion based on the unsymmeirical limited increasing information,a functional simulation model for predicting rescrvior productions and the method for solving corresponding parameters are established separately. Four stages in the changing proccess of reservoir produc-tion and the relationship between instantaneous production and annual production are also studied. On the basis of the viewpoints of control theory and the theory of system recognition ,the model describes the non-linear characteristics of reservoir production system in time domain. It has multiple functions ,can not only be used for predicting instantaneous,cumulative and annual productions and the recoverable rescrves ofreservoirs , but also for predicting maximun instantaneous and annual productions ,their happening times ,the cumulative productions at the times,and the time boundary lines of the four stages. The cases showthat the model and the mcthod are all cffective for predicting medium and long-term productions of reser-volrs.