蓝色经济发展的混沌条件与经济预测方法

为了有效解决蓝色经济发展的预测问题,该文将混沌理论同战略预测相结合,首先以蓝色经济发展系统的时间序列状态向量、政策向量和随机力为参量,分析了该系统形成混沌状态的条件;其次通过该系统劳动生产率动态增长模型的建立过程,综合考虑系统控制变量和状态变量的变化,并利用单驼峰曲线和Lyapunov指数,分析了系统处于平衡与稳定、分岔与分形以及混沌状态的程度及参数条件;最后,讨论了可控的经济政策组合对蓝色经济发展系统的影响作用。结果表明,可控的政策力对蓝色经济发展具有决定性作用,从而为某区域在复杂条件下管控蓝色经济发展并进行相关政策制定提供了理论方法和依据。

Chaos conditions and economy forecast for the blue economy development

The chaos theory was combined with the strategic forecast method to efficiently solve the problem of blue economy forecast.The chaos conditions of the blue economy developing system were analyzed with parameters of the time sequence vector,policy vector and stochastic force.Through the process of establishing a labor productivity dynamic model for the system,the extent and parameter conditions of three states,balance and stability,bifurcation and fractals,and chaos,were then analyzed and compared using the ...