基于灰色定权聚类模型的公路边坡水毁风险等级评价

针对公路边坡水毁风险等级评价因素的灰色性和模糊性问题,提出一种基于灰色定权聚类模型的风险等级评价方法.以福建省泉州市德化县农村公路边坡水毁为例,基于现场调查和数据的统计分析,选取了10个主要影响因子,利用因子分析法计算每个水毁因子的权重;将公路边坡水毁风险划分为四个等级,构建三角白化权函数,建立评价指标体系,利用灰色定权聚类模型定量计算公路边坡水毁风险等级及抗水毁能力,计算结果与现场调查相符合.灰色定权聚类评价模型减少了风险评价过程中主观因素的影响,研究结果对类似的公路边坡水毁风险评估、提升农村公路抗水毁风险能力具有理论及实际意义.

Risk grade evaluation of highway slope water damage based on grey fixed weight cluster model

Slope water damage is the main form of highway diseases, and the evaluation of water damage risk grade and the improvement of water damage risk resistance are one of the research hotspots in related fields. The frequent typhoon rainstorms, wide distribution of granite residual soil, complex topography and geomorphology and geological structure, fragile geological environment conditions, as well as the low maintenance degree of rural roads, the hilly areas in southeast Fujian result in the serious destruction of highway slopes. Because the risk grade evaluation factor of highway slope water damage is obtained in a limited time and space, its information has the characteristics of grayness and fuzziness, this paper proposes a risk grade evaluation method based on grey fixed-weight cluster model. Taking the rural road in Dehua County of Quanzhou City as an example, on the basis of field investigation and analysis of the main inducing factors of rural road slope water damage, according to the statistics of water damage caused by water damage factors, the weight of each water damage factor is calculated by factor analysis method.; selecting the gray value indexes of each water damage factor and using the triangle whitening functions to establish the evaluation index system for the risk degree of water damage of rural highway slope in Dehua County, on the basis of qualitative analysis, combined with the weight of each water damage factor, the risk grade of highway slope water damage is calculated quantitatively, the risk grade and water resistance capacity of the typical rural road slope in Dehua County were obtained, and the calculation results were consistent with the on-site investigation results. Grey fixed-weight cluster evaluation model reduces the influence of subjective factors in risk assessment and has high credibility. The research results have important theoretical and practical significance for similar highway slope water damage risk assessment and improving the ability of rural highway to resist water damage risk.