霍尔果斯工业园区电力专项规划负荷预测分析

负荷预测是配电网规划的基础工作,是电力专项规划的核心内容.针对新建工业园区的特点,以新疆霍尔果斯经济开发区兵团分区作为案例,首先运用负荷密度法、项目统计法、平均增长率法和最大负荷利用小时数法对工业园区进行负荷预测;然后,综合4种预测方法及预测结果,采用了组合预测法得到了兵团分区供电预测负荷.预测结果表明该方法具有较大的实用价值.

The Analysis of Load Predicted to Power Special Planning in Khorgas Industrial Park China

Load prediction is the fundamental work of distribution grid planning,and the core content of the power special planning.This paper,on the basis of the characteristics of newly-built industrial parks,takes Khorgas Economic Developing Area (Corps Subarea) as the case and firstly makes load prediction to the industrial park by utilizing load density method,project statistics method,average growth rate method and the maximum load using the method of hours.Then,the results from the above mentioned four methods are analyzed by combined prediction method to get the power load prediction in industrial park.The result shows that this prediction method is of high practical value.