Simulation Methods for an Abductive System in Science |
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| Authors: | T R Addis D C Gooding |
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| Institution: | (1) School of Computing, University of Portsmouth, Buckingham Building, Portsmouth, PO1 3HE, UK;(2) Department of Psychology, Science Studies Centre, University of Bath, Bath, BA2 7AY, UK |
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| Abstract: | We argue that abduction does not work in isolation from other inference mechanisms and illustrate this through an inference
scheme designed to evaluate multiple hypotheses. We use game theory to relate the abductive system to actions that produce
new information. To enable evaluation of the implications of this approach we have implemented the procedures used to calculate
the impact of new information in a computer model. Experiments with this model display a number of features of collective
belief-revision leading to consensus-formation, such as the influence of bias and prejudice. The scheme of inferential calculations
invokes a Peircian concept of ‘belief’ as the propensity to choose a particular course of action.
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| Keywords: | Belief Indifference Flexibility Receptivity Certainty Bayes Action Confidence Bias Prejudice Choice |
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