导弹武器系统方案评审指标体系研究

运用系统工程的方法和思想,研究了导弹武器系统方案评审指标体系的问题,提出用先进性、经济性和可行性作为方案评判准则,并建立了方案评判指标体系.最后,对各评审指标提出了求解方法.例如,综合应用模糊数学和层次分析法对总体性能进行评价;应用主成分分析法并提出了用蒙特卡洛方法估算系统全寿命周期费用;应用风险评估技术对系统研制风险进行估计.这些求解方法是方案评审的理论基础.

Research on Target System of Missile Weapon System Project Evaluation

This paper, by applying the mehod and thought of system engineering, has made research on target system of missile weapon system project evaluation. This paper has put forward advanced degree, economical degree and feasibility as criteria estiomating a project, and established the target system of project evaluation. Finally, the solutions defining all evaluation targets have been put forward in this paper: for example, by applying fuzzy nethod and AHP, the system general performance is estimated; by applying the principal component analysis method and Monte Carlo simulation process, the Life Circle Cost of system is estimated; by applying Venture Evaluation and Review Technique, the risk of development of the system is assessed. The solutions defining all evaluation targets are theoretical base for Project Evaluation.