基于微气象微地形的北京地区输电线路覆冰预测技术

实现输电线路覆冰预测是保障北京地区输电线路在覆冰季正常运行的关键技术。针对北京地区输电线路覆冰预测技术研究，采用皮尔逊相关系数和灰色系统关联度分析方法，利用历史数据研究覆冰厚度与微气象微地形的相关性，得出湿度、坡向、风向和高程对覆冰厚度影响程度较高；通过多种环境特征要素组合构建基于极限随机树模型和灰色系统预测模型的覆冰预测模型，对比不同模型的预测结果的均方根误差（RMSE），得出由湿度和风向组合构建的灰色系统覆冰预测模型效果最佳。研究结果表明，与同类预测方法相比考虑了微地形对覆冰厚度预测的影响，得到北京地区输电线路覆冰厚度相关性较高的环境因素为湿度、坡向、风向和高程；对比多种环境要素构建的覆冰预测模型，湿度和风向组合的灰色系统预测模型的均方根误差明显优于其它组合，可以有效实现北京地区输电线路覆冰预测。

Research on Prediction Technology of Power Transmission Line Icing Based on Micrometeorological and Microtopography in Beijing Area

Prediction of transmission line icing is a key technology to ensure the normal operation of transmission lines in Beijing during the icing season. Aiming at Beijing area, Pearson correlation coefficient and grey system correlation degree analysis method were used to study the correlation between ice cover thickness and micrometeorological and microtopography based on historical data, and the results showed that humidity, slope direction, wind direction and elevation had a higher degree of influence on ice cover thickness; The ice cover prediction model based on the extremely randomized trees model and the grey system prediction model was built by combining various environmental characteristics. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the prediction results of different models was compared, and the grey system prediction model based on the combination of humidity and wind direction was the best. The results show that, compared with the similar prediction methods, the influence of micro-topography on icing thickness prediction is considered, and the environmental factors with high correlation of icing thickness of transmission lines in Beijing are humidity, aspect, wind direction and elevation. Compared with the icing prediction models constructed by various environmental factors, the root mean square error of the grey system prediction model combining humidity and wind direction is significantly better than other combinations, which can effectively realize the icing prediction of transmission lines in Beijing.