人民币升值对农产品进出口影响的实证分析

在我国经济快速增长的过程中,人民币汇率面临不断升值的压力.根据弹性分析理论,在符合"马歇尔-勒纳"的条件时,汇率升值会有利于促进进口,抑制出口.本文通过构建计量经济模型,对2007年至2012年的中国农产品进出口与人民币汇率之间的关系进行了实证分析.结果表明,人民币汇率升值对中国农产品出口没有造成显著的抑制作用.人民币对美元汇率对我国农产品进口有显著影响.最后,在此基础上对实证结果作出了分析并给出了相应的政策建议.

Empirical analysis on the influence of RMB appreciation on agricultural prdductshnport -export trade

In the process of our country＂ rapid economic growth, the RMB exchange rate constant pressure on the appreciation of the face . according to the elasticity analysis theory. If ＂Marshall -Lerner＂ condition can be meet, exchange rate＇appreciation would promote import and restrain export. In this paper, empirical test of the import ＆ export of agrieuhure products staffs- tical from China and the RMB exchange rate was made by constructing the econometric model. The results showed that the RMB apportions had caused the import agriculture products to increase in China, but the negative impact on the export of agrieuhure products. Lasts, the empirical results were analyzed deeply and some corresponding policy suggests were put forward.