基于灰色马尔可夫模型的路面状况指数预测

随着公路使用年数的增加，路面使用性能的衰减不可避免。为延长道路使用寿命，公路养护管理单位需要在适当的时间采取合适的路面养护措施。近年来，我国多个地区开展了预防性养护时机和养护措施的研究。路面使用性能的预测作为预防性养护的基础，可以给公路管理部门提供决策依据。本文运用灰色马尔可夫模型对路面破损状况进行预测。模型兼有灰色预测和马尔可夫预测的优点，预测精度较高。实例表明，与其他模型相比，该模型有较高的实用性。

Prediction of Pavement Condition Index Based on Grey Markov Model

With the increase of using years, the decline of Pavement quality is not avoided. In order to lengthen the service life of pavements, highway maintenance management departments should take right conservation measures at the right time. Many areas in China have studied on the right preventive maintenance time and maintenance measures in recent years. As the basis of preventive maintenance, the prediction of pavement quality can provide the theoretical basis for highway maintenance management departments. This paper took the prediction of pavement condition index by the grey Markov model. The model has the advantages of gray model and Markov mode and has a good prediction precision. Compared with the other model, the results showed that the model has a better practicality.